Boom or Bust

For those looking to invest in the real estate market?keep your eyes on the headlines. According to the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. (FDIC), the number of areas across the U.S. with real estate booms shot to 55, increasing by nearly two-thirds last year. The FDIC warns, "these booms may be followed by busts".

"Boom" areas are defined as having inflation-adjusted prices at the end of 2004 that were up 30% or more in three years.

Of the 362 major metropolitan cities included in this study, over 15% were boom areas. This data, analyzed by the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight, more than doubles the peak of the 1980's booms and is the highest ratio of boom markets in 30 years.

As for "boom or bust", busts are rare. Only 17% of U.S. housing booms from 1978-1998 ended in busts, which are defined as a 15% or more drop in home prices over a five-year period.

What is making the market soar? Aside from inflation, the mortgage industry has to be considered first. Adjustable rate and interest only mortgages are growing in numbers and subprime loans now account for 10% of all mortgage loans.

With interest rates lower than they've been in years, borrowers can afford to finance an amount greater than the standard 80% loan to value. The percentage of loans exceeding 80% of the purchase price has grown to over 30%. If a borrower has an adjustable rate mortgage and the interest rates rise, their payments increase. If the market values drop, or bust and they have 90% or 95% loan to value, they owe more on the home than it is worth. But these are all "What ifs??".

In the markets with the highest number of "boom" cities, California with 21 cities has a high increase rate of 58% and Florida with 11 cities has a high increase rate of 54%. These two states alone account for 60% of the boom areas! With these numbers, would you purchase an investment property in Florida or California and flip it in three years for a possible return upwards of 50%?

Of course. A relatively sound investment. How much longer can the market withstand these price increases before it busts? Even history shows a period of time when the market stalls so that inflation can catch up. If you want to invest in real estate, carefully examine the history of the market you are purchasing in! If it has been booming like Florida and California, be careful how long you hold on to the property. If you notice the market is starting to drop, sell. Hold on too long, it may bust!

Jason M. Rigler
Cash now for future payments

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After 30 years of marriage, Sharon and Michael Newman decided it was finally time to move from the Catskills to New York City.

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A Flatiron condo, a Midtown South co-op and a Brooklyn Heights carriage house.

A four-bedroom ranch in Montclair, N.J., and a four-bedroom colonial Cape in Babylon, N.Y.

For a century, Roosevelt Island housed a grim penitentiary. It was demolished in the 1930s.

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Two more glass skyscrapers are added to a group of towers on the waterfront of Long Island City.

Insurance coverage for a co-op unit; when a tenant is ‘blacklisted’; a co-op is smaller than estimated.

The market for $500,000-to-$600,000 houses in Westchester has become especially active.

A shaky real estate market means more sellers are providing buyer concessions, from gift cards to help with paying property taxes.

Houses of worship are adaptable to residential and other uses as congregations dwindle.

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A cold war-era satellite relay station is for sale in California after a Silicon Valley mogul gave up on plans to turn it into a weekend home.

How can I make my front porch more appealing to buyers?

Court hearings meant to protect New York homeowners from foreclosure are hopelessly slowed by endless paperwork and requests for additional information.

The Bay Area and Silicon Valley expect the windfall from the Facebook stock offering to make their in-demand region even hotter.

The house, designed by the architect Eric Fisher, looms over the street like a big industrial arm.

A town house in Dallas, a midcentury modern in Rhode Island and a Tudor in Denver.

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Trinity Church is the largest landlord in Hudson Square and is part of the effort to rezone the area to residential from manufacturing.

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Ms. de França is the president and chief executive of Douglas Elliman Development Marketing, which focuses on new residential developments.

Meet the real estate broker’s interns: an ambitious group willing to do anything, earn nothing and wake up early on a Sunday to fluff the couch cushions at open houses.

A Flatiron condo, a Midtown South co-op and a Brooklyn Heights carriage house.

A four-bedroom ranch in Montclair, N.J., and a four-bedroom colonial Cape in Babylon, N.Y.

Homes in Dallas, Rhode Island and Denver.

Compare the cost of renting and buying equivalent homes.

For recently divorced men, a new breed of decorators offers help navigating a strange new world.

Plants that light up the winter garden can be found at Broken Arrow Nursery in Connecticut, which has long been a favorite of gardening geeks.

A sister in need drew the painter Beverly McIver back home to North Carolina, unaware that a new beginning was in store for both of them.

A jewelry designer finds striking new objects for storage.

Timothy Sakamoto and Jochen Repolust are part of the small but growing niche making mobile apps focused on specific works of architecture.

To promote an auction of 20th- and 21st-century design, the interior designer Stephen Sills has created a preview exhibition in an apartment at the Apthorp.

Fishs Eddy now sells plates acquired from the archives of the now-defunct Syracuse China Corporation, many more than 100 years old.

The designer Russell Greenberg creates custom baby rattles with ends shaped like profiles of mom and dad.